Main Risks

Risks and impact
Variability of effects related to pandemic events

The occurrence of a pandemic can undermine personal health to such a point as to endanger the endurance of the health and socio-economic systems of the countries involved. The duration and magnitude of a pandemic depends, among other things, on the promptness and efficacy of measures to protect health taken at global level, even in consideration of any possible mutation of the circulating virus and the coverage and termination of immunisation campaigns.

In relation to COVID-19, Leonardo Group’s performance may be affected by the impact arising from the downturn in the civil aviation sector, as well as by volatility of some risk factors, including: the economic recovery trend and market performance, asymmetries between supply and demand for certain goods and services, inflationary effects, shortages of certain professional skills; the customers’ and suppliers’ capacity to fulfil the contractual obligations they have entered into and assume others; customers’ revision of procurement strategies; restrictions deriving from measures taken to protect personal health, with repercussions on the Group’s commercial and industrial operations.

In addition to making all possible efforts to preserve its people’s health and safety in full compliance with the relevant rules, the Leonardo Group has put special plans of action in place to limit the possible repercussions of risk factors associated with the COVID-19 pandemic.

The plans of action concern, among other things: constructive management of relations with customers, whether institutional or not, thanks to a widespread presence all over the world, balanced with the application of tools that virtualise promotion and marketing; the adoption of satisfactory financial solutions and an even more selective approach to expenditure in order to maintain financial flexibility in support of both current operations and development actions; the prompt reorganisation of production lines together with carrying out certain technical functions on a remote basis and ongoing oversight of the company’s supply chain and procurement strategy.

The change in the level of expenditure of national governments and public institutions may affect business performance
The major customers of the Group are national Governments or public Institutions. Moreover, the Group takes part in numerous national and international programmes funded by the European Union, governments or multinational collaborations. Therefore, it is affected by economic and geopolitical factors at global and regional level, the expense policies of the public Institutions, also for research and development programmes funding, in addition to the medium/long-term plans of the Governments.
The Group pursues an international diversification strategy, placing it in its main markets, as well as in emerging markets marked by significant growth rates, in the aerospace, defence and security sectors.
The Group operates in civil sectors that are highly exposed to growing levels of competition
In the civil sectors, customers’ diminished spending capacity not only gives rise to delays in obtaining new orders or falls in the numbers of orders themselves, but also affect their economic and financial conditions. These sectors are also characterised by the entry and success of competitors even from other fields of activity, mostly with the help of anti-cyclical M&A transactions carried out by international investment funds. The market positioning of these players could have an impact on the Group's volumes, results and debt, thus prospectively enabling a growing competitive challenge on government customers.

In addition to balancing its customer portfolio suitably between government and non-government entities, the Group systematically pursues its objectives in order to increase industrial efficiency, diversify its customer base and improve its ability to perform contracts, while reducing overhead costs with a view to enhance its competitive capacity.
The Group ensures highly qualitative and innovative product standards, and an integrated value proposition aimed at maintaining its technological edge, including thanks to open innovation and the interaction with innovative startups and SMEs.

The capacity for innovation and growth depends on the strategic planning and management of skills
Incessant technological innovation and the growing complexity of the Group's businesses require constant alignment of skills, in order to provide high added-value products and services. Especially in a market environment characterised by sharp demand for innovation skills, any shortage of special expertise and the obsolescence of certain competencies and professional skills could have impacts on the full achievement of short- and medium/long-term business objectives, including possible repercussions in terms of time-to-market of new products and services, as well as of access to emerging business segments.
The Group monitors and manages competencies and professional skills by means of plans of action directed at attracting, retaining and motivating its human resources, managing talents, providing ongoing specialist training and reskilling/upskilling, insourcing core competencies and defining succession plans, with the gradual adoption of state-of-the-art tools of People Analytics and new Lifelong Learning development and training platforms for all personnel, particularly in the STEM (Science, Technology, Engineering & Mathematics) area. 
The Group operates in some business segments through partnerships or joint ventures
The corporate strategies contemplate the possibility of gaining business opportunities partly through joint ventures or commercial alliances in order to integrate its technology portfolio or strengthen its presence in the market. The operation of partnerships and joint ventures is subject to both strategic positioning and management risks and uncertainties. Divergences can arise between partners about the identification and achievement of operational and strategic objectives, as well as core business operations.
The Group systematically carries out due diligence activities before and after the completion of partnerships and joint ventures. At this purpose, the active involvement of its top management in any related operation is aimed, among other things, at directing its strategies and identifying and managing any critical issue in a timely fashion.
The Group is exposed to the risk of fraud or illegal activities on the part of employees and third parties
The Group adopts and updates its organisational, control, procedural and training system to ensure fraud risk monitoring and compliance with any and all anti-corruption laws applicable in the domestic and foreign markets in which it operates. The possibility of employees or third parties behaving in an ethically incorrect or not fully compliant manner cannot be ruled out, nor can be ruled out the possibility of judicial authorities initiating proceedings aimed at establishing any possible liability attributable to the Group, the results and timing of which are difficult to determine and which might entail temporary suspensions from the market concerned.

The Group has set out a model of responsible business conduct aimed at preventing, identifying and responding to the risk of corruption.
Thanks to its model, Leonardo SpA has reached the highest level of Transparency International’s Defence Companies Index on Anti-Corruption and Corporate Transparency (DCI), in addition to having its ISO 37001 certification, the first international standard on anti-corruption management system, confirmed. Leonardo was the first company in the world's top ten in Aerospace, Defence and Security to obtain this certification. The model also provides for the responsible management of the supply chain, through the qualification, selection and management of suppliers, as well as the adoption of a risk analysis tool within the scope of due diligence audits within the process of engagement assignation to sales promoters, commercial advisor and lobbyists.

The settlement of legal disputes can be extremely complex and might require a considerable period of time
The Group is party to judicial, civil and administrative proceedings; for some of these, the Group has established specific provisions for risks and charges in the consolidated financial statements to cover any potential liabilities that could derive. Some of these proceedings in which the Group is involved – for which a negative outcome is unlikely or that cannot be quantified – are not covered by the provisions referred to above. 

Further developments of judicial proceedings, presently unforeseeable and indefinable, together with the possible consequential impact on Leonardo’s reputation, could also have a significant impact on its relationships with customers. 
The Group regularly monitors potential and existing disputes, taking the necessary corrective actions and adjusting its provisions for risks on a quarterly basis.
The Group operates in particularly complex and regulated markets, which require compliance with specific regulations (e.g. export control)
Defence solutions are of particular importance in terms of compliance with regulatory obligations and, therefore, their export is strictly regulated and is subject to prior authorization, based on specific national and foreign regulations (such as, for example, Italian Law 185/1990 and the U.S. International Traffic in Arms Regulations - ITAR and the Export Administration Regulations - EAR), as well as to customs formalities. The prohibition on, limitation or any possible revocation (for example in the case of embargoes, geopolitical tensions or the occurrence of wars) of export authorisations for defence or dual-use products, as well as failure to comply with any applicable customs regime, may have substantial adverse effects on the Group's business, financial position, results of operations and cash flows. Moreover, failure to comply with these regulations could also make it impossible for the Group to operate in specific regulated areas.
The Group ensures, through specific functions, a timely implementation and management of the formalities required by the relevant regulations, monitoring their updating on an ongoing basis in order to allow the day-to-day performance of commercial and operational activities, in compliance with the provisions of law and with any possible authorisation and/or limitation and of its Policy of respect for human rights. The Group has promptly made arrangements to carry out the changes necessary as a result of Britain’s exit from the European Union and is continuing to follow developments in customs regulations in order to carry out the necessary modifications immediately. 
The Group operates through a number of industrial plants and processes that may expose it to risks to the health and safety of workers and to environmental risks

The Group's activities are subject to compliance with laws, rules and regulations governing the protection of workers’ health and safety. Specifically, Legislative Decree 81/2008 provides for a preventive and permanent health and safety management system at work, through the identification of risk factors and sources, the elimination or reduction of risk, the ongoing monitoring of preventive measures implemented, the development of a corporate strategy to be implemented through the participation of all stakeholders in the working communities. 

The Group's activities are also subject to compliance with laws, rules and regulations governing the protection of environment and energy management, which imply specific environmental permits aimed at ensuring the compliance with restrictions and conditions on emissions into the atmosphere, water discharges, storage and use of chemical or hazardous substances (e.g. REACH Regulation and RoHS Directive) and waste management and disposal.

Risks to the workers’ health and safety are based on the principle of zero tolerance, in strict compliance with the relevant regulations, and are managed through targeted risk analyses, which take account of injury frequency and severity rates and related improvement objectives, specific action and training plans, within the framework of a precise system of proxies and powers for each relevant matter, aimed at ensuring that the action taken complies with the Group’s guidelines. The Group also confirms its commitment to extend the coverage in terms of Health and Safety System, for example through the ISO 45001 certification. The Group is also committed to protecting the safety of its people working on company sites and in direct relations with customers around the world from external threats.

The Group complies with the ever-increasing limits and restrictions imposed by the environmental protection regulations as regards sites and production processes. The Group also confirms its commitment to extend coverage in terms of Environmental Management System, for example through the ISO 14001 certification. The Group regularly performs environmental assessments of sites and monitoring, and it also takes out specific insurance policies in order to mitigate the consequences of unexpected events.  

Climate change, the protection of the environment and consequent new developments in the scenario concerned may require action to be taken on certain types of processes and products
The transition to a low-carbon and more environmentally sustainable economy may entail risks for the company, induced by greater severity of environmental and climate policies, the progress of the relevant technology or the changing confidence of investors and lenders. Company processes, particularly production processes, as well as products and services offered to the market may be affected.

Furthermore, the impact of climate change exposes the Company to an increased frequency of acute weather events (e.g., drought, floods, and storms) and the progressive modification of climate and the environmental context.

The Group pursues an industrial strategy aimed improving the efficiency of its production systems and processes on an ongoing basis for the reduction of energy consumption and atmospheric emissions and, thanks also to the participation, as a partner of excellence, in the main European programs for research and innovation, develops low environmental impact technological solutions which are functional to the fight against climate change.

The Group puts measures in place against any possible acute or chronic physical risks and has specific insurance cover against the possible consequences of disastrous climatic or natural events.

Breaches of information security obligations can cause damage to the Group, its customers and suppliers and pose a threat to the security of citizens and critical infrastructures 
Companies are required to face the risks associated with information security, deriving from ceaseless evolutions in cyber threats in its numerous forms (from advanced persistent threat to the phishing campaign), the sophistication of attack strategies and a greater exposed surface area resulting from, among other things, the increasing digitisation of processes, products and services for customers, as well as the increased use of remote working. The critical geopolitical context, the deterioration of relations between states or the occurrence of war conflicts may increase the scope and number of cyber attacks, aimed at institutions and companies.

Computer incidents, including any in the supply chain, stoppages, leaks of personal data and the loss of information that may also be of strategic importance may endanger business and even the Group’s image, above all in the event of the theft of third-party data kept in the Group’s archives. 

The Group manages cyber security through dedicated controls and training for the entire corporate population, as well as processes, procedures and specific technologies for the prediction, prevention, detection and management of potential threats and for responding to them. Leonardo is ISO 27001 certified and is constantly engaged in management and improvement activities aimed at maintaining the certification itself.

Leonardo also benefits from substantial experience in the field of cyber security, gained on the market through the competent business Division. In addition to a continuous improvement in the methods of managing permissions of access to information, Leonardo continues to take any action to extend data and information protection and processing methods and processes to its own suppliers.

The Group could encounter difficulties in protecting its Intellectual Property
Leonardo's success and results also depend on the Company's ability to protect the innovations resulting from its R&D activities through Intellectual Property. In this respect, the Group mainly uses industrial secrets, patents, copyrights. Nevertheless, the possibility cannot be ruled out that the activity of a “disloyal” employee, an improper action of a supplier or a legal but aggressive act of a third party may lead to repercussions on the company’s Intellectual Property. Furthermore, there is a greater risk of counterfeiting in highly technological environments such as that in which Leonardo operates, given the high number of patents held by third parties.
The Group is committed to the continuous improvement of its Intellectual Property protection processes, from the approval of research and development investments, through the definition and implementation of measures to protect technical information and proprietary know-how. Appropriate monitoring and surveillance actions are taken to detect any infringements by suppliers, partners or competitors. Of particular importance is the creation, the expansion and the penetration of the internal IP Correspondent networks in the Divisions.
The Group provides highly complex products, systems and services, including under long-term fixed-price contracts
The Group supplies products, systems and services that are particularly complex due to their advanced technological content, including under long-term contracts at a fixed all-inclusive price. Terms and conditions of contracts generally include challenging requirements and rigorous completion times, the failure to honour which may entail the payment of penalties, in addition to warranty liability and claims for damage that are not covered in full by insurance policies. Furthermore, an unforeseen rise in the costs incurred in the performance of a contract, which may also be the result of the occurrence of chance events, could lead to a lower profit. In this regard, attention must also be paid to the structural effects of market phases characterised by inflation, over-demand, lack or discontinuity of supply of goods (including commodities) and services necessary for production and delivery to the customer, with consequent greater execution times and costs for the company. These dynamics may also be determined, accelerated or exacerbated by the deterioration of institutional and commercial relations between sovereign states or by the onset of war conflicts.
From the commercial offer phase and at regular intervals during the performance of the contract, Leonardo considers the projects’ main performance and financial parameters in order to assess its performance and manage risks throughout the entire life cycle through the detection, assessment, mitigation and monitoring of risks with the definition and management of appropriate contingencies, in order to protect the financial margins of the projects themselves. Risk management is supported by dedicated Risk Managers in project teams. The Group is committed to the continuous improvement of its industrial efficiency and its ability to meet customer specifications. With reference to energy commodities, the Group pursues, on an ongoing basis, a strategy aimed at optimising purchases and uses of resources.
The risks of performance of contracts, associated with the liability to customers or third parties, also depend on the supply and sub-supply chain
The Group purchases, in very substantial proportions with respect to its sales, industrial products and services, materials and components, equipment and subsystems; it may therefore incur liability to its customers for operational, legal or financial risks attributable to third parties, who operate as suppliers or sub-suppliers. The Group’s dependence on suppliers for certain business activities might give rise to difficulties in maintaining quality standards and meeting delivery times. The risk profile of suppliers can deteriorate during downturns in economy, in the presence of geopolitical tensions and conflicts and during periods of convulsive recovery, also due to subsequent offer shortages and discontinuity, bottlenecks and inflationary effects into the real economy.

Leonardo has been pursuing its policy of strengthening and improving the supply chain for some years, leveraging a transparent and sustainable partnership relationship with the excellences in its Supply Chain, to give rise to a more innovative, integrated and resilient industrial eco-system. In addition to the programmes already in place (LEAP, ELITE Leonardo Lounge), the Company has defined a set of principles and rules for the assessment of key suppliers, specifically oriented towards the development and growth of the Supply Chain with a view to long-term sustainability (Leonardo Assessment and Development for Sustainability).

The Group is required to fulfil direct or indirect offset obligations in certain countries
In the Aerospace and Defence sector, some international institutional customers require the application of some types of industrial offset related to the award of contracts, sometimes with rigorous requirements, linked to the development policy of each country. Therefore, the Group may undertake offset obligations that require procurement or manufacturing support at local level, technology transfer and investments in industrial projects in the customer’s country. Failure to meet offset obligations may result in the application of penalties and, in certain cases, might prevent the Group from participating in contract award procedures in the countries concerned.
The Group manages offset risks by means of appropriate analyses carried out from the offering phase within the project teams, which also appoint an Offset Manager for the Division concerned. A due diligence is performed before dealing with a third party under an offset agreement, which is conducted according to the relevant international best practices. 
Leonardo has also set up a dedicated central organisational unit to guide and supervise offset activities.
Critical raw materials available on the market
Critical raw materials are of great importance for industrial applications, especially for high-tech applications and, in particular, for components (sensors, actuators, highly miniaturised microprocessors). In some cases, critical raw materials are a decisive enabler for both the initiatives underpinning the European Green Deal and the technologies of certain production sectors. Most of the critical raw materials relevant to the Aerospace and Defence sector are not directly available in Europe, but rather in other mainly non-NATO/EU countries. Availability and production of materials are sometimes concentrated in a single country, which may therefore be in a position to sway the balance between global supply and demand, with impacts on market prices and/or availability of goods, in particular in scenarios marked by critical geopolitical issues, the deterioration of institutional and commercial relations between sovereign states or the occurrence of war conflicts.
Leonardo, in addition to monitoring the prospective requirements of its supplies, takes part in international working groups, such as those at European and NATO level, which reconcile the interests of both States (supporting the definition of recommendations for member States) and the companies and supply chains involved, in order to encourage the identification of common strategies for mitigating risks. Leonardo also engages in activities having the purpose of enhancing the efficiency of the use of resources (for example fostering circularity mechanisms) as soon as the product technological research and sustainable design phases start.
A substantial amount of consolidated assets is attributable to intangible assets, goodwill in particular
The recoverability of amounts recognised in intangible assets (including goodwill and development costs) is linked to the implementation of future plans and the business plans for the relevant products.

The Group implements a policy of monitoring and limiting amounts capitalised under intangible assets, with specific regard to development costs, and carries out ongoing monitoring of performance under scheduled plans, taking any necessary corrective action in the event of unfavourable trends. These updates are reflected in impairment tests.

The Group’s debt could have an impact on its strategies 
The debt level, beside impacting the profitability as an effect of the related borrowing costs, could affect the Group’s strategy, limiting its operational flexibility. Potential future liquidity crises could also restrict the Group’s ability to repay its debts.

In assuring a solid and balanced structure between sources of funds and investments, Leonardo pursues an ongoing strategy of limiting its debt by paying steady attention to cash generation, which is used, market conditions permitting, to partially reduce the existing debt.

The Group’s credit rating is also linked to the opinions of the credit rating agencies
All Group bond issues are given a medium-term financial credit rating by the international agencies Moody’s Investors Service, Standard and Poor’s and Fitch Ratings. A possible downgrade in the Group’s credit rating could severely limit its access to funding sources, as well as increase its borrowing costs for existing and future loans, which would have a negative impact on the business prospects, performance and financial results. Prospectively, eligibility and sustainability performance will also become increasingly important in determining creditworthiness.
The Group is actively engaged in reducing its debt as confirmed by the Industrial Plan. The Group’s financial policies and selection of investments and contracts involve being constantly alert to maintaining a balanced financial structure.

In seeking out strategies to pursue, the Group always takes into account the potential impact on the indicators used by the credit rating agencies. 

At the same time, the Group is committed to the ongoing optimisation of its sustainability profile, as well as contributing to the relevant initiatives of the European Aerospace and Defense Industry.
The Group realises part of its revenues in currencies other than those in which costs are incurred, exposing it to the risk of exchange-rate fluctuations. A part of consolidated assets is denominated in US dollars and pound sterling
The Group reports a significant portion of revenues and costs in currencies other than euro (mainly in dollars and pounds). Accordingly, any negative changes in the reference exchange rate might have negative effects (transaction risk).

Moreover, the Group has made significant investments in the United Kingdom, in Poland and in the United States of America: this might have a negative impact on the Group’s results of operations, financial position and cash flows due to the translation of the financial statements of foreign investees (translation risk).
The Group continuously applies an organised systematic hedge policy to combat transaction risk for all contracts in its portfolio by using the financial instruments available on the market.

Moreover, in intercompany financing activities denominated in currencies other than the euro individual positions are hedged at the central level.
The Group is a sponsor of defined-benefit pension plans in the UK and the US and of other minor plans in Europe
Under the pension schemes reserved for employees who mainly operate in the United Kingdom and in the United States of America, the Group is required to ensure a specific future retirement benefit level for employees participating in the plan. In said countries the pension funds in which the Group participates invest resources in the plan assets (stocks, bonds, etc.) that might not be sufficient to cover the agreed-upon benefits. If the value of plan assets is less than the agreed-upon benefit level, the Group duly recognises the amount of the deficit among liabilities, with consequent adverse effects on its financial position, results of operations and cash flows.
The Group monitors pension funds’ investment plans and strategies on an ongoing basis and takes immediate deficit corrective action when necessary.

Emerging Risks

Further emerging risks recently placed under analysis are the following ones:

Risks and impact
New ESG requirements in tenders could affect Leonardo’s competitiveness and cost structure

Leonardo's customers might introduce in tenders and bids new challenging requirements ESG-related to be met by proposing companies and their supply chain (eligibility parameters for tenders); the UK Ministry of Defence, one of the main Leonardo’s customers, for instance, as part of its competitive bidding process, awards 10% of the overall score based on Social Value, measuring the impact of organisations on the well-being, resilience and sustainability of communities. In the medium-long term, some customers, especially in countries with advanced economies, may accelerate this trend. Leonardo’s supply chain is largely composed of small and medium-sized enterprises (SME, over 6,700 in the domestic markets) that may not be able to quickly adapt their business models and industrial processes to ensure compliance with these emerging ESG requirements, with consequence on Leonardo competitiveness, cost profile and profitability.

Indeed, this emerging risk could have impacts on Leonardo’s ability to win contracts/bids as a consequence of the inability and lack of preparedness of SMEs to innovate their processes and solutions in the given time frame. Furthermore, Leonardo may have to carry out extraordinary support interventions on its potential critical suppliers, with consequent increase in costs (in 2021 Leonardo spent €9.2 billion in total costs for purchase of goods and services equal to 65% of revenues).

To mitigate this risk, Leonardo leverages on a specific programme addressed to strengthen and improve its supply chain. Through this programme, LEAP (Leonardo Empowering Advanced Partnerships), Leonardo acts as a driver and accelerator for growth of SMEs in its ecosystem to create stronger, more sustainable relations with the supply chain. Improvement and development projects are already under way with 120 suppliers, including managerial training, commercial partnership agreements, financing, and support for technology transfer, digital transformation and cyber security. 

Furthermore, Leonardo has implemented a supplier evaluation model, LEADS (Leonardo Assessment and Development for Sustainability), that aims to improve key suppliers’ performance in relation to sustainability and development risks, increasing their preparedness on new emerging ESG requirements. In 2021, over 500 key suppliers were assessed in terms of ESG/sustainability, identifying strengths and areas for improvement.

Change in labour market could affect recruitment and retention of critical skills for AD&S
Remote working options and new employees' expectations, with growing importance attributed to career opportunities, greater economic benefits, inclusiveness standards and more valuable work-life balance benefits, are progressively increasing competition for skills and changing the labour market dynamics. 

In this unprecedented competitive and challenging market, worsened by the aprioristic “stigmatization” of the defence sector, Leonardo's attractiveness for talents becomes crucial for recruitment and retention of human resources and critical skills (in 2021 Leonardo's new hires were 3,753: 54% have a STEM qualification; turnover 7% in 2021 vs 6% in 2020). 

Any shortage or loss of specialist expertise and the obsolescence of certain competencies could affect the leadership position on new critical skills (e.g. cybersecurity and cloud), with impacts on time-to-market and on the full achievement of Leonardo’s medium/long-term strategic goals.
Leonardo's industrial and sustainability strategy aims to attract, retain and motivate its human resources by managing talents, providing ongoing specialist training and reskilling/upskilling, defining succession plans, and developing models of open innovation. Initiatives in place at Leonardo to mitigate the emerging risk described include use of People Analytics, new Lifelong Learning training platforms for all personnel (particularly in STEM area), welfare, employee benefits, surveys and engagement. To cope with this emerging risk

Leonardo adopts also tailored recruiting strategy. For example, looking at cybersecurity and cloud skillset, one of the most critical in the current job market, Leonardo segmented the recruiting needs based on priority for the business and job market dynamics. Launching customised actions by segment helped Leonardo attract and retain highly skilled talent in the Cyber and Security business. The strategy has been successfully executed through deeper collaboration with universities and research centers and it will be used to oversight other actual and emerging critical skillset.