The pandemic continues to lead to a high level of volatility in the global context
Although the situation is expected to improve gradually over the course of the year, the macro-economic and health outlook remain uncertain in the short term
2021 expected performance confirms the Group resilience, underlined by the ability to react to the new context, with a return to our path of sustainable growth and increased profitability. Our civil business is expected to still be heavily affected by the effects of the pandemic, with, in particular, a further contraction of production volumes in Aerostructures and GIE- ATR expected deliveries still far below the pre-Covid-19 levels.
Guidance for 2021 assumes a progressive improvement in the global health situation through the year with consequent normalization of operating / market conditions. This is expected to deliver:
- high levels of new orders (approx. € 14 bn), reflecting a strong positioning of the Group's products and solutions and effective commercial penetration in key markets;
- revenues of € 13.8-14.3 bn, up compared to 2020 based on the expected contribution of new orders and the delivery of activities in backlog on military / government programmes, in particular EFA Kuwait;
- increasing profitability, with EBITA of € 1,075 - 1,125 mil, driven by the expected growth in volumes and continued solid industrial profitability of the main business areas, offsetting mix effect of programmes under development and growing shares of prime contractor revenues; the estimate reflects also continued pressure in the civil sector, in particular Aerostructures and GIE-ATR;
- FOCF of approx. € 100 mil, assuming a solid performance from the main divisions, a significant cash absorption by the Aerostructures of around € 350-400 mln, and "normalization" of the levels of net investments and operating expenses compared to the extraordinary measures implemented in 2020;
- Group net debt of approx. € bil. 3.2 assuming no dividend payable for 2020 results and no strategic private and public transaction
The estimates for the year 2021 are summarized below